A SPECIALIST IN QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS (QRA) FOR THE COST AND SCHEDULE OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
John has facilitated over 200 risk workshops over the past 15 years for various types of construction projects. He understands the human bias and psychological barriers when facilitating brainstorming workshops; his use of Delphi Technique often successively collates and normalizes the judgments of SMEs.
The proprietary Riscor simulation Model on @RISK is developed since 2005 to perform detailed QRA on Class 3 cost estimates combining with schedule risk analysis result. The Model has been used on a variety of capital construction projects in North America & Europe to derive contingency & risk reserve.
Project Gating System is about the readiness for execution phase, and the Riscor Readiness includes 80 checklist items for Class 3 cost estimates, 70 items for FEED phase and 150 items at Gate 4 prior to construction site mobilization. This risk-based approach is applicable to any projects of any sizes.
John Zhao is the founder and a Principal Consultant of Riskcore Consulting company, he has over thirty-five years of diverse construction project experience including PMO, cost estimating & forecast, qualitative risk workshop facilitations, quantitative cost and schedule risk analyses. He has worked on capital projects with contractors in Far & Middle East, EPC companies in North America and Owner operating companies in Canada and Europe.
John holds a Master degree in Construction Project Management and a Bachelor degree in Building Design & Management from England, a Diploma in Building Engineering & Technology and a Certificate in Contract Law & Negotiation. He is past members of AACE, Professional Engineering in New Brunswick, Charted Institute of Building (CIOB) & Construction Industry Institute (CII). He is a trained Lead Auditor for ISO 9001 (quality management).
John is also an active speaker at various local universities & conferences, and has presented & provided training on the topics of project risk management since 2005 virtually and physically in Abu Dhabi, Miami, London, Las Vegas, Denver, New Orleans, Stavanger, Nashville, Edmonton, Calgary, Beijing, Vancouver & Toronto.
"John's QRA Work is Industry Leading for this pipeline mega-project."
- Helen, Assurance Lead, KPMG
"Riskcore's Analysis and the Final Report is the best one in my career."
- Denis, Project Director, CKPC
"John's qualitative and quantitative risk analyses are the best practices."
- George, Professor, Uni. of Calgary
"John is definitely qualified to do this complex work for our refinery."
- Al, Project Leader, Refinery, Utah
"The QRA done for the adequacy of remaining contingency made funding approval easier."
- Jim, Mining Project, SK, Canada
Riskcore is a project risk management (PRM) consulting firm specializing in training and the implementation of project risk management process, system and methodology, including
- facilitating qualitative risk workshops for assessment, responses and residual risk handling;
- soliciting inputs and modelling quantitative cost estimate risks for contingencies & escalation;
- providing independent, unbiased and risk-based project readiness reviews at any given gate;
“Riscor” is a Monte Carlo based simulation model developed in 2005 by Riskcore for Class 3 (or better) cost estimates, scientifically determining cost overrun probabilities and contingencies & escalation; it integrates qualitative systemic risks with quantitative specific risks to derive an aggregated contingency for both cost and schedule delays at chosen confidence level.
QRA by Simulation
Reduce Chance of Failure
Capital Projects are crucial to the economic prosperity of nations and organisations but they often than not go off the rails in terms of either budget or time or both. Risk analysis sends early warning signal to project owner to take corrective actions.
Quantify Risks to Win Bids
Chances of winning competitive bids over the others rely on the risk appetite of an organization. Chances of project cost over-runs and schedule delays rely on the confidence level of cost estimate & schedule. QRA can scientifically simulate such chances by quantifying risks.
Use Probability for Success
Involving all stakeholders for a transparent, efficient & effective risk analysis often highlights the areas lacking the proactive and proficient risk management strategy & plan, a QRA process integrates all encompassing project risks into a simulation model for success.
Monte Carlo Simulation
For Cost Estimate Contingency and Forecast-at-Completion
- Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is to forecast the future cost behavior with very little historical data or benchmark information being known to the decision-makers. Riscor® does it scientifically for your cost estimate contingency!
- MCS is one of forecasting techniques to predict project's final cost amount and schedule date using the combination of art (subjectivity) and science (statistics). Riscor® captures all project changes and re-evaluates the adequacy of your contingency!
- Forecast-at-Completion (FAC) is an important task for Project Controls. Traditional "Trending" and EVM methods have flaws of leaving risks out. Riscor® uses multivariate linear regression technique to capture various changes to derive a stochastic FAC!
- Simulation process is a combination of quantitative and qualitative analyses and this approach integrates expert judgement and statistical reasoning. Riscor® captures heuristics and systemic risks in register!
- Monte Carlo simulation method is not purely objective based, rather, the subjectivity, experiences, knowledge & human bias all play key roles in its results. Riscor® normalizes SMEs' inputs for risk ranging!
- Monte Carlo Method is a mathematical technique, which is used to estimate the possible outcomes of a string of uncertain or risky events. Riscor® runs on commercial simulation platform for your project!