A SPECIALIST IN QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS (QRA) FOR THE COST AND SCHEDULE OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
John has facilitated over 200 risk workshops over the past 15 years for various types of construction projects. He understands the human bias and psychological barriers when facilitating brainstorming workshops; his use of Delphi Technique often successively collates and normalizes the judgments of SMEs.
The proprietary Riscor simulation Model on @RISK is developed since 2005 to perform detailed QRA on Class 3 cost estimates combining with schedule risk analysis result. The Model has been used on a variety of capital construction projects in North America & Europe to derive contingency & risk reserve.
Project Gating System is about the readiness for execution phase, and the Riscor Readiness includes 80 checklist items for Class 3 cost estimates, 70 items for FEED phase and 150 items at Gate 4 prior to construction site mobilization. This risk-based approach is applicable to any projects of any sizes.
John Zhao is the founder and a Principal Consultant of Riskcore Consulting company, he has over thirty-five years of diverse project experience including PMO governance, qualitative risk workshop facilitations, quantitative cost and schedule risk analyses. He has worked on construction projects with contractors in Middle East, EPC companies in North America and Owner operating companies in Canada and Europe.
John is also an active speaker at various local universities & conferences, and has presented the topics of project risk management since 2005 in Abu Dhabi, Miami, London, Las Vegas, Denver, New Orleans, Stavanger, Nashville, Edmonton, Calgary, Beijing, Vancouver & Toronto.
"John's QRA Work is Industry Leading for this pipeline mega-project."
- Helen, Assurance Lead, KPMG
"Riskcore's Analysis and the Final Report is the best one in my career."
- Denis, Project Director, CKPC
"John's qualitative and quantitative risk analyses are the best practices."
- George, Professor, U of C
"John is definitely qualified to do this complex work for our refinery."
- Al, Project Leader, Refinery, Utah
"The QRA done for the adequacy of remaining contingency made funding approval easier."
- Jim, Mining Project, SK
Riskcore is a project risk management (PRM) consulting firm specializing in training and the implementation of project risk management process, system and methodology, including
- facilitating qualitative risk workshops for assessment, responses and residual risk handling;
- soliciting inputs and modelling quantitative cost estimate risks for contingencies & escalation;
- providing independent, unbiased and risk-based project readiness reviews at any given gate;
“Riscor” is a Monte Carlo based simulation model developed in 2005 by Riskcore for Class 3 (or better) cost estimates, scientifically determining cost overrun probabilities and contingencies & escalation; it integrates qualitative systemic risks with quantitative specific risks to derive an aggregated contingency for both cost and schedule delays at chosen confidence level.
Riscor Model Developed
Worth of Projects Risked
Risk Workshops Conducted
Registered in Alberta
QRA by Simulation
Reduce Chance of Failure
Capital Projects are crucial to the economic prosperity of nations and organisations but they often than not go off the rails in terms of either budget or time or both. Risk analysis sends early warning signal to project owner.
Quantify Risks to Win Bids
Chances of winning bids over competitors rely on how much an organization is willing to take on risks of cost overrun and schedule delays. Scientifically such chances can be assessed and quantified through simulation.
Use Probability for Success
Involving stakeholders for transparent, efficient and effective risk analysis often highlights the areas lacking the proactive and proficient risk management strategy and plan as well as quantified risk profile.
Riscor Monte Carlo Simulation
For Cost Estimates and Schedule
- Monte Carlo simulation is to forecast the future cost behavior with very little historical data or benchmark information being known to the decision-makers. Riscor does it right for your contingency!
- It is one of forecasting technique to predict project's final cost and schedule date using the combination of art (subjectivity) and science (statistics). Riscor re-evaluates the adequacy of your contingency!
- Simulation process is a combination of quantitative and qualitative analyses and this approach integrates expert judgement and statistical reasoning. Riscor captures systemic risk impact in register!
- Monte Carlo simulation method is not purely objective based, rather, the subjectivity, experiences, knowledge & human bias all play key roles in its results. Riscor normalizes SMEs' inputs for risk ranges!
- Monte Carlo Method is a mathematical technique, which is used to estimate the possible outcomes of a string of uncertain or risky events. Riscor runs on commercial simulation platform for your project!
Projects and Sectors
Oil Refineries for New Construction and Turnaround / Outage
Six Oil Refineries in USA & Canada, T/A & New Construction
Oil-sands SAGD and Upgrader (new development & construction)
SAGD & Upgrader Development & Construction in Canada
Petrochemical Plants of Ethelene, Ammonia, PDH, Polypropylene
Quantitative Risk Analysis on Fixed Price EPC Contracts
Transportation Oil & Gas Pipeline and HDPE Water Pipeline
QRA (SRA & CRA) for 1,100KM Oil Pipeline in Canada
Buildings of Pharmaceutical Plant and Penitentiaries (new & renovations)
Qualitative Risk Assessment & Risk-based Readiness Reviews
Mining Projects for Coal, Uranium, Oil-sands & Potash
Cost Risk Analysis and Various Risk Workshop Facilitation
Public Infrastructures (Schools, Hospital, Sports Stadium & LRT)
Risk Analysis and Assessment, Independent Reviews & Gap Analysis
Institutions for Public and In-house Training Courses on PRM
Three-day Training Courses of Project Risk Management (AACE, PMI)
To provide value-added project reviews, risk assessment and risk analysis, data analytics and benchmarking services.
To focus on specialty and niche skills by working with competent & experienced professionals collaborating as a team.
To timely deliver promised scope of work with right expertise in quoted budget for the expected high quality report.
Presentations and Publications
- 2005 AACE International in Las Vegas titled “Marrying Risk Register with Trending”
- 2005 PertMaster International User Conference in Houston titled “Schedule Risk Analysis and Credibility”
- 2006 AACE International in New Orleans titled “Significance of WBS in Risk Modeling”
- 2006 Canadian Heavy Oil Conference in Calgary titled “Effective Mega Project Risk Controls”
- 2006 ARES Corporation PUG conference in Calgary titled “ Contingency Simulation and Management”
- 2007 Palisade (@RISK) User Group in Miami USA titled “Stochastic Decision-making method”
- 2007 Energy IQ International conference in Abu Dhabi titled "Project Risk and Management"
- 2007 Best Practice Users’ Group in London England titled “Strategic Decisions under Risk Conditions”
- 2008 Canadian Institute EPC Project Management conference in Calgary titled “Risks in EPC World”
- 2009 Palisade Energy Forum in Calgary titled “The Cost of Risk Quantification”
- 2010 Palisade @RISK conference in London England titled "Put More Science in Cost Risk Analysis"
- 2011 SPE Technical Conference in Denver USA titled "Understanding and Handling Residual Risks"
- 2014 Canadian institute EPCM conference in Calgary titled “Managing Risks of Overseas Engineering”
- 2015 Palisade @RISK Conference in Calgary titled “Quantifying Management Reserves”
- 2017 AACE Chinook Section Dinner Meeting in Calgary titled "Projects, Risks and Contingency"
- 2017 Palisade Conference in Nashville USA titled "Contingency Determination using @RISK for capital projects"
- 2018 PMI Southern Alberta Chapter Dinner Meeting Calgary “Project Professionals and Project Failures”
- 2019 AACEi & CIQS Joint Meeting Vancouver “Is it Important to scientifically derive Project Contingency?”
- 2019 Project Management Institute Conference Calgary “Managing Mega Capital Projects - Behind the Façade”
- 2020 Canadian Institute of Quantity Surveyors (CIQS) Webinar “Projects and Contingency: Science & Art"
- 2021 ASCE "TMEP Employs Risk Mitigation Measures for Trenchless Construction on their new Pipeline"
For a free consultation about your project needs for a risk analysis, or if you have any inquiries, questions or commendations, please contact us by calling 587-352-6698 or fill out the following form
Calgary, Alberta, Canada
Text / Tel: 587 352 6698
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